Moscow in the shadows

Russia is giving Iran specific tactical advice on the use of drones, according to a Western intelligence official cited by CNN. This is not just shared intelligence or satellite imagery, which had already been reported last week. It is something more granular: drone attack strategies that Russia developed in Ukraine, now adapted to strike American and Gulf targets. "What was more general support is now getting more concerning, including targeting strategies that Russia employed in Ukraine," the official said.

The Washington Post had previously reported that Moscow was sharing sensitive intelligence with Tehran, including the locations of US warships and aircraft in the Middle East. Putin spoke by phone with Pezeshkian this week. The Kremlin did not respond to CNN's report. Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff said Russian officials had assured him they were not providing targeting information to Iran, and that the US "can take them at their word." A remarkable statement for its naivety, whether deliberate or not.

The geometry of the conflict favours Russia on nearly every axis. Oil prices rise and Moscow is an exporter. The United States spends resources, attention and political capital on Iran instead of Ukraine. The trilateral peace talks Washington was brokering between Russia and Ukraine have been postponed. And now, the operational experience Russia accumulated using Iranian drones against Ukraine returns as tactical advice for Iran to use those same drones against the United States. It is a closed loop. The Western official also mentioned that Chinese support for Iran is "concerning" but declined to elaborate. There are more players in this war than appear in the official communiqués.