Cables

MIDDLE EAST The end that does not come March 31, 2026

Trump said Monday the war is "coming to an end". On Sunday he said a deal would "probably" happen and that the Iranians now governing are "much more reasonable". He also said he wants to "take the oil…

MIDDLE EAST The historic opportunity March 31, 2026

According to the Associated Press, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain are pressing Trump to continue the war, arguing there is a "historic opportunity" to topple the Iranian regime. Saudi offic…

ECONOMY Larak Island March 31, 2026

Two ultra-large container ships owned by COSCO, China's biggest shipping company, made a sharp U-turn after apparently trying to sail past Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, according to MarineTraf…

MIDDLE EAST Blue helmets March 31, 2026

Three UN peacekeepers were killed in southern Lebanon since the weekend, all Indonesian nationals, according to Indonesian and UN officials. The Security Council called an emergency meeting. On Monday…

MIDDLE EAST The Beijing plan March 31, 2026

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar travelled to Beijing to meet Wang Yi. Together they presented a peace plan. According to reports, the White House "does not oppose" the initiative. It is the first…

MIDDLE EAST If conditions are met March 31, 2026

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told European Council President António Costa that Iran has "the necessary resolve to end this war if the required conditions are met, especially the necessary guar…

MIDDLE EAST Water, power, oil March 31, 2026

Trump said Monday that if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz, the US will not only destroy its power plants and oil wells but also "possibly all desalination plants". It is the first time a sitti…

EUROPE Closed skies March 31, 2026

Spanish Defence Minister Margarita Robles confirmed that Spain has closed its airspace to US aircraft involved in the war against Iran. It is unclear when the closure took effect, though Sánchez had h…

ECONOMY $5.99 in Los Angeles March 31, 2026

The average US gas price hit $4 per gallon, the highest since 2022. In Los Angeles County, regular climbed to $5.99, up from $4.69 a month ago. Since the start of the war, Brent has risen over 50%. Cr…

DEFENCE Mission accomplished March 31, 2026

Pete Hegseth held his first press conference on the war in 12 days today and declared that "regime change has occurred" in Iran. He said the US is focused on pursuing a deal to end the war. It was the…

ECONOMY Twenty ships March 29, 2026

Iran agreed to let 20 Pakistani-flagged ships cross the Strait of Hormuz, two per day, under Pakistani navy escort. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced it on X, calling it "a welcome and co…

MIDDLE EAST Khorramshahr March 29, 2026

A convoy of Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) was seen entering Khorramshahr in southwestern Iran. It is the first visible evidence of foreign fighters entering the Iranian theatre. The PMF is …

MIDDLE EAST Ne'ot Hovav March 29, 2026

An Iranian missile struck a chemical plant in the Ne'ot Hovav industrial zone in southern Israel, causing fears of a hazardous materials leak. Israel's fire and rescue service worked to "prevent an ex…

MIDDLE EAST One month March 29, 2026

One month of war. Iran has endured 393 waves of Israeli attacks. More than 1,900 people have been killed in the country, at least 200 of them children. 82,000 civilian structures damaged or destroyed.…

DEFENCE Prince Sultan March 29, 2026

Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia twice in one week. In the two attacks combined, at least 29 US soldiers were wounded, five of them seriously. According to The Wall Street Journal, o…

MIDDLE EAST The universities March 29, 2026

The IRGC threatened to strike campuses of American universities in the Persian Gulf after the US and Israel bombed Iranian universities. It issued an ultimatum to the US government: publicly condemn t…

MIDDLE EAST Islamabad March 29, 2026

The foreign ministers of Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia met in Islamabad today to seek a diplomatic solution to the war. It is the first multilateral summit dedicated exclusively to mediatin…

DEFENCE Ground operations March 29, 2026

The Washington Post reported the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of limited ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal zones near the Strait of Hormuz. The plan…

MIDDLE EAST The second strait March 29, 2026

The Houthis fired missiles and drones at Israel on Saturday, the first time the Yemeni group has directly attacked Israel since the war began. Brigadier General Yahya Saree announced the operation and…

MIDDLE EAST Five conditions March 27, 2026

Iran presented a five-condition counterproposal in response to the 15-point American plan: end of aggression by the enemy, concrete guarantees preventing the recurrence of war, clear determination of …

DEFENCE Severe strain March 27, 2026

Israel's chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, warned cabinet ministers that the Israel Defence Forces are under "severe strain" due to manpower shortages and expanded operational demands. It is the fi…

DEFENCE Arak March 27, 2026

The Israeli air force bombed Iran's Arak heavy water reactor in Markazi province, after issuing an evacuation warning to civilians in the area. Fars News reported no casualties due to "prior safety me…

MIDDLE EAST The phone call March 27, 2026

Vice President JD Vance reportedly chided Benjamin Netanyahu in a tense phone call for overselling the chances of regime change in Iran. It is the first visible crack between Washington and Jerusalem …

ECONOMY The Hormuz customs house March 27, 2026

Lloyd's List Intelligence reported that at least two vessels paid significant sums to Iran to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's parliament is preparing legislation to formalise the collection of toll…

ECONOMY 40 days of reserves March 27, 2026

The Philippines became the first country to declare a state of emergency over the energy crisis caused by the war in Iran. It has petroleum reserves for 40 to 45 days. Protesters took to the streets o…

MIDDLE EAST April 6 March 27, 2026

Trump announced today he is extending the moratorium on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure by another 10 days, until April 6 at 8 PM Eastern. "As per Iranian Government request," he wrote o…

MIDDLE EAST South of the Litani March 25, 2026

Defence Minister Israel Katz announced that Israel will take control of large areas of southern Lebanon in its campaign against Hezbollah. The geographic reference is the Litani River, roughly 30 kilo…

MIDDLE EAST Five days March 25, 2026

Trump announced a five-day moratorium on planned strikes against Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure. He said Iran "wants peace" and has agreed not to acquire nuclear weapons. He extended th…

ECONOMY The lights go out in Colombo March 25, 2026

Sri Lanka ordered street lights, neon signs and billboard lighting switched off nationwide as part of a plan to cut energy consumption by 25%. The measure is aimed at tackling supply shortages caused …

ECONOMY 2,000 ships March 25, 2026

Roughly 2,000 vessels and 20,000 seafarers are stranded in and around the Strait of Hormuz. They are oil tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers, container ships and cargo vessels that cannot cross the m…

DEFENCE The 82nd Airborne March 25, 2026

Trump approved the deployment of over 1,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East. It is the most iconic rapid-response unit in the US Army, designed to deploy anywhere in th…

MIDDLE EAST Fifteen points March 25, 2026

The United States sent Iran a 15-point peace proposal through Pakistan. Tehran "responded negatively," state media reported, citing a senior political-security official who spoke of a counterproposal:…

DEFENCE The Caspian Sea March 20, 2026

Israel struck Iranian naval targets in the Caspian Sea, the first time attacks have extended to that body of water since the war began. Until now, operations against Iran's navy had been concentrated …

MIDDLE EAST Nowruz under the bombs March 20, 2026

Israel bombed Tehran today during the celebration of Nowruz, the Persian New Year, the most important holiday on the Iranian calendar. In Jerusalem, the Al-Aqsa mosque remained closed during Eid al-Fi…

ECONOMY Through 2027 March 20, 2026

Goldman Sachs warned that oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel through 2027. This is not a projection of a temporary spike but of a prolonged plateau. Brent closed today around $108, up 48% s…

ECONOMY Stay home March 20, 2026

The International Energy Agency published a report today with emergency recommendations for governments, businesses and households: work from home, reduce highway speeds by at least 6 mph, use public …

EUROPE Cowards March 20, 2026

Trump called NATO allies "cowards" for not helping to secure the Strait of Hormuz. He wrote it on social media this morning, before several European countries issued a joint statement condemning Irani…

DEFENCE Withdraw and reinforce March 20, 2026

Trump posted on Truth Social today that the US is considering "winding down" military operations in the Middle East. He dismissed the prospect of a ceasefire with Iran, arguing the US has "the upper h…

MIDDLE EAST Oman's voice March 19, 2026

Oman's foreign minister published an opinion piece in The Economist urging American allies to step in and help end what he called an "unlawful war". It is a significant break. Oman has historically be…

DEFENCE War as a catalogue March 19, 2026

The State Department approved and fast-tracked more than $16 billion in arms sales to the UAE, Kuwait and Jordan. The UAE will receive 10 anti-drone systems, long-range discrimination radars integrate…

INTELLIGENCE The corrected testimony March 19, 2026

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has been accused of altering her written Senate testimony on Iran. According to reports, her original statement said US intelligence had concluded that …

INTELLIGENCE There was no intelligence March 19, 2026

Joe Kent, the Trump administration's counterterrorism chief, abruptly resigned and told Tucker Carlson there was "no intelligence" suggesting Iran was preparing a Pearl Harbor or 9/11-style attack. He…

DEFENCE Boots on the ground March 19, 2026

The Trump administration is considering deploying thousands of ground troops to the Middle East, Reuters reported, citing a US official and three people familiar with the planning. Options include rei…

MIDDLE EAST The nuclear threat of gas March 19, 2026

After telling Netanyahu not to strike South Pars again, Trump threatened to "massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field" if Iran attacks Qatar once more. The formulation is remarkable:…

DEFENCE The F-35 is not invulnerable March 19, 2026

A US F-35 was damaged by Iranian fire during a combat mission over Iran and made an emergency landing at a base in the Middle East. The IRGC published footage of the incident. It is the first time in …

MIDDLE EAST Riyadh's patience March 19, 2026

Saudi Arabia declared today that "the little trust that remained in Iran has been completely shattered". Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan warned that "nonpolitical" options are on the table i…

ECONOMY Ras Laffan ablaze March 19, 2026

Hours after the Israeli strike on South Pars, Iran launched missiles at Ras Laffan, Qatar's main liquefied natural gas hub and one of the largest in the world. QatarEnergy's CEO said the Iranian attac…

MIDDLE EAST South Pars March 19, 2026

Israel struck production infrastructure linked to the South Pars natural gas field yesterday, the largest gas reserves in the world, shared between Iran and Qatar. It is the first time Israel has atta…

MIDDLE EAST The Samson doctrine March 13, 2026

The Revolutionary Guards warned today that if Iran's port and energy infrastructure is attacked, it will set the entire region's oil and gas ablaze. Armed forces spokesman Abolfazl Shekarchi was expli…

DEFENCE When I feel it in my bones March 13, 2026

Israel's military chief told senior commanders that the war with Iran is expected to continue at least until April, according to i24News. It is the first concrete timeline to emerge from the Israeli m…

MIDDLE EAST Bombs on Al-Quds Day March 13, 2026

Explosions struck near an official Al-Quds Day rally in Tehran today, while security chief Ali Larijani, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were in attendance. At least on…

ECONOMY My enemy's enemy's oil March 13, 2026

On Thursday, the US Treasury issued a temporary licence allowing countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea. The same day, Brent closed above $100 per barrel for the first time since …

MIDDLE EAST The leader who cannot show his face March 13, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei issued yesterday what Iran presented as his first public message since assuming the role of supreme leader. Another person read the statement on state television, with a photograph of…

MIDDLE EAST Three conditions March 12, 2026

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian posted on X yesterday Tehran's conditions for ending the war: recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees aga…

MIDDLE EAST The Gulf on fire March 12, 2026

The Revolutionary Guards struck the tanker Safesea Vishnu, a Marshall Islands-flagged vessel, in the northern Persian Gulf today, after the ship "disobeyed and ignored warnings" from the Iranian navy.…

INTELLIGENCE Moscow in the shadows March 12, 2026

Russia is giving Iran specific tactical advice on the use of drones, according to a Western intelligence official cited by CNN. This is not just shared intelligence or satellite imagery, which had alr…

DEFENCE The irony of the Shahed March 12, 2026

Zelensky confirmed that Ukrainian military teams are already operating in Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Experts in security, engineers and military personnel, deployed to help these countries shoot…

ECONOMY 400 million barrels are not enough March 12, 2026

The International Energy Agency announced yesterday the largest release of strategic petroleum reserves in its history: 400 million barrels, unanimously approved by its 32 member countries. The United…

DEFENCE NATO watches from the stands March 6, 2026

Mark Rutte spoke today from Skopje, North Macedonia, where he was celebrating the Balkan country's contribution to collective security. While the Middle East burns, NATO's secretary general was in the…

ECONOMY Wall Street wakes up March 6, 2026

The Dow fell over 1,200 points this morning before paring losses to close down 403, or 0.83%. The S&P 500 lost 0.94% and the Nasdaq shed 1.02%. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, jumped 9% and hit its…

MIDDLE EAST The prince nobody called March 6, 2026

Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last shah, declared himself the country's "transitional leader" in an interview with 60 Minutes. He said he envisions an Iran at peace with Israel, that the nuclear pro…

ECONOMY The cloud under fire March 6, 2026

Iranian drones struck three Amazon Web Services facilities in the Persian Gulf. Two data centres in the UAE were hit directly and one in Bahrain was damaged by a drone that landed nearby. AWS said the…

DEFENCE The hardest hits are yet to come March 6, 2026

Marco Rubio spoke to reporters on Capitol Hill today after classified briefings for the Senate and the House. He said the attacks on Iran "in the next few hours and days" will increase in scope and in…

AMERICAS 47 to 53 March 6, 2026

The Senate today rejected the War Powers Act resolution that sought to halt the war with Iran. The vote was 47 to 53. Rand Paul was the only Republican to vote in favour. John Fetterman was the only D…

ECONOMY The Strait is closed March 3, 2026

On Monday, a senior IRGC official confirmed the Strait of Hormuz was closed and threatened to set ablaze any ship that attempted to pass. Ship-tracking data shows tanker traffic dropped 70% on Saturda…

MIDDLE EAST Israel returns to Lebanon March 3, 2026

Israel announced today that its troops are operating in southern Lebanon. The 91st Division positioned itself at "several strategic points" on Lebanese territory, in what the army described as a "forw…

EUROPE To be free, one must be feared March 3, 2026

While the United States and Israel were bombing Iran on Saturday, Emmanuel Macron was giving a 45-minute speech in front of a nuclear submarine at the Île-Longue base in Brittany. He announced the fir…

MIDDLE EAST Drones over Riyadh March 3, 2026

Two drones struck the American embassy in Riyadh early this morning, causing a limited fire and minor damage, according to the Saudi Ministry of Defence. A Saudi official told NBC News there were no i…

EUROPE The United Kingdom is not at war March 3, 2026

A Shahed drone struck the runway at RAF Akrotiri, Britain's main air base in the eastern Mediterranean, shortly after midnight on Monday. It was the first attack on the base since 1986, when pro-Libya…

EUROPE Spain says no March 3, 2026

Trump ordered Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to cut all trade with Spain. He said it Tuesday during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the White House. The immediate trigger: Madrid …

MIDDLE EAST Khamenei is dead February 28, 2026

Iran confirmed the death of Ali Khamenei. Press TV, the state English-language broadcaster, announced it in a post on X: "It is announced to the martyr-nurturing people of Iran that Grand Ayatollah Kh…

INTELLIGENCE Is Khamenei dead? February 28, 2026

At eleven in the evening Tehran time, cheers and applause were heard from the balconies of several neighbourhoods across the capital. Witnesses told Reuters that people came to their windows to celebr…

MIDDLE EAST Iran fires on the Gulf: six countries under attack February 28, 2026

Iran's retaliation came quickly and was considerably broader than in June 2025. The Revolutionary Guards confirmed strikes on US bases at Al Udeid (Qatar), Al Salem (Kuwait), Al Dhafra (UAE) and the F…

MIDDLE EAST Operation Epic Fury: the United States enters the war February 28, 2026

What started as an Israeli attack this morning turned within hours into a joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran. Trump confirmed it in a video posted on Truth Social: "major combat operatio…

MIDDLE EAST Israel - and possibly the USA - strikes Iran February 28, 2026

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced early Saturday morning the launch of a "preemptive strike" against Iran and declared a state of emergency across the country. Iran's Fars news agency rep…

EUROPE Europe without a centre February 27, 2026

France, Germany and the United Kingdom, the three pillars of European power, entered 2026 with fragile and unpopular governments, squeezed between populism on both flanks and an American administratio…

DEFENSE New START expired and nobody noticed February 27, 2026

On February 5, 2026, the New START treaty expired without a replacement. For the first time in over half a century, there are no binding legal limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the United St…

MIDDLE EAST Iran: diplomacy with an aircraft carrier in your face February 27, 2026

The third round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran ended yesterday in Geneva without a deal but with what Omani mediator Badr al-Busaidi described as "significant progress." Ir…

DEFENSE Anthropic vs. the Pentagon: who controls military AI February 27, 2026

Trump today ordered all federal agencies to "immediately cease" using Anthropic's technology and the Pentagon designated the company a supply chain risk to national security, a category normally reser…

AMERICAS Venezuela Two Months On: Trump's Pottery Barn February 27, 2026

The United States captured a sitting president inside his own home and flew him out of the country in four hours. Now it has to figure out what to do with what is left behind. Operation Absolute Resol…

EUROPE The Digital Euro and Europe's tortuous bureaucracy February 27, 2026

Europe has a priorities problem. On February 10, the European Parliament voted in favour of moving forward with the digital euro, the ECB's electronic currency that has been in the works for six years…

DEFENSE Takaichi and Japanese Rearmament February 27, 2026

For the first time since 1945, a single party has enough votes to amend Japan's pacifist constitution. On February 8, Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party swept 316 of 465 seats in the House of R…

DEFENSE The Geneva Talks and Putin's Clock February 27, 2026

While Witkoff and Kushner sat down with the Ukrainian delegation at the Hôtel des Bergues in Geneva yesterday, Russia launched 420 drones and 39 missiles at energy infrastructure and residential build…