The historic opportunity

According to the Associated Press, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain are pressing Trump to continue the war, arguing there is a "historic opportunity" to topple the Iranian regime. Saudi officials said ending the conflict at this stage "would not lead to an optimal agreement." Egypt, by contrast, urged Trump to act to stop the war.

The split is revealing. The four countries pushing for more war are the same ones that have spent a month taking Iranian missiles and drones on their territory. Their refineries have been struck, their airports hit, their citizens killed. And yet they want the campaign to continue. The logic is that the damage they are suffering is less than the Iranian threat they would face if the regime survives intact. They would rather pay the cost now than face a reconstituted Iran later.

Egypt does not share that calculus. It does not border the Gulf, does not host US bases, and its relationship with Iran is less confrontational. Cairo can afford to call for peace. Riyadh cannot. Qatar, which lost 17% of its LNG capacity in an Iranian strike, said it "supports all initiatives to end the fighting" but is not a direct mediator. A diplomatic nuance that reflects the position of a country attacked by Iran but also indirectly hit by Israel through South Pars. In the Gulf, nobody has clean hands or a simple answer.