The end that does not come

Trump said Monday the war is "coming to an end". On Sunday he said a deal would "probably" happen and that the Iranians now governing are "much more reasonable". He also said he wants to "take the oil in Iran," might seize Kharg Island, and will destroy desalination plants if Hormuz stays closed. Iran is recruiting volunteers as young as 12 for security and support roles. A senior Iranian official said Tehran "will determine when the war ends."

The contradiction between the rhetoric of closure and the actions of escalation is the defining feature of the month of March. Trump spoke of "winding down" while sending Marines. He declared "regime change" while the 82nd Airborne deployed. Now he says the war is ending while threatening to destroy water infrastructure. Every declaration of peace comes accompanied by a threat more extreme than the last.

Brent has risen over 50% since the war began. More than 2,000 people have been killed in Iran, over 1,200 in Lebanon, 101 in Iraq, 19 civilians in Israel. Thirteen US service members have died. The Philippines declared a state of emergency. Sri Lanka turned off the lights. The Houthis entered the war. China and Pakistan offer mediation. One month exactly since the first strike. Trump says it is ending. Everything suggests it is just beginning.