Too Far

Trump pulled the plug on Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner's trip to Islamabad for a second round of talks with Iran. The stated reason: too much flying. "We're not going to spend 15 hours in airplanes all the time going back and forth to be giving a document that was not good enough," he told Fox News before boarding Air Force One. Iran, for its part, had already said there would be no direct meeting with the Americans. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Islamabad, met with Pakistani mediators, left Tehran's list of demands on the table, and departed for Oman. About an hour after Araghchi's plane left Islamabad, Trump gave the order to stand down.

The sequence matters. On Friday, the White House confirmed that Witkoff and Kushner would travel to Islamabad on Saturday for "direct talks, intermediated by the Pakistanis" with the Iranian delegation. Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said the Iranians had requested the meeting and that there had been "progress." Tehran denied everything. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei posted on X that no meeting was planned between Iran and the United States. Iran's observations would be conveyed to Pakistan, not to Washington. This has happened before: in March, Trump said there had been "productive conversations" with Iran while Tehran denied any contact. That same day, an Iranian source admitted there had been "outreach" and that Iran was willing to hear "suitable" proposals.

The pattern is always the same. Washington wants to show that dialogue is happening, that things are moving, that pressure works. Tehran needs to avoid looking like it is negotiating under duress. The result is a theatre of contradictory signals that has been running for weeks and produced nothing concrete. The first round in Islamabad on April 11 ended without an agreement. Vance, who travelled that time, was ready to go this week but his trip was scrapped on Tuesday when the Iranians refused to accept preconditions.

Trump added a detail worth taking with a grain of salt: he said that when he cancelled the trip, Iran sent "a new paper that was much better" within ten minutes. He also said there is "tremendous infighting" inside Iran's leadership but that he is willing to "deal with whoever runs the show." Araghchi, from Oman, wrote on X that he is waiting "to see if the U.S. is truly serious about diplomacy."

What to watch is whether the cancellation is a negotiating tactic or a prelude to something worse. Trump told Axios it does not mean a resumption of the war. But the naval blockade continues, the war is on day 56, the Lebanon ceasefire is held together with pins, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Senator Tom Cotton called for more pressure, even if that means resuming military operations. The clock is ticking for both sides, but apparently fifteen hours on a plane is too much to ask.