Through 2027

Goldman Sachs warned that oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel through 2027. This is not a projection of a temporary spike but of a prolonged plateau. Brent closed today around $108, up 48% since the war began 21 days ago.

The crisis numbers are cumulative. Petrol in the United States averaged $3.91 per gallon today, nearly a dollar more than three weeks ago. In the UK and Europe, natural gas prices rose sharply after the strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan. In Zimbabwe, fuel topped $2 per litre. Traders have scrapped bets on Fed rate cuts this year, and some are contemplating a rate hike, a scenario that was unthinkable before the war. US inflation had been drifting down toward the 2% target. Now it has a new engine that nobody controls.

Trump said the price increase "is temporary" and that the strategic reserve release would push prices down. Goldman Sachs says the opposite. The gap between both readings is measured in trillions of dollars of global economic impact. If Goldman's projection is correct, this war has not only redrawn the political map of the Middle East but altered the cost structure of the world economy for at least two years.