Stay home

The International Energy Agency published a report today with emergency recommendations for governments, businesses and households: work from home, reduce highway speeds by at least 6 mph, use public transport or car-share, and avoid air travel. It describes the situation as "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."

This is not a minor suggestion. The IEA does not issue recommendations of this kind except in exceptional crises. The last time it made similar calls was in 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but in a less urgent tone. Now, three weeks into the war, the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually closed. Twenty percent of the world's oil and a similar share of liquefied natural gas are blocked. The 400 million barrels of strategic reserves released last week failed to stabilise prices. Brent hovers around $108-$115.

Petrol in the United States went from $2.93 to $3.91 per gallon in three weeks. Georgia became the first state to suspend fuel taxes for 60 days. In Zimbabwe, fuel topped $2 per litre for the first time. Traders have cancelled bets on Fed rate cuts, and some are beginning to see the possibility of a rate hike in 2026, a near-unthinkable scenario before the war. The IEA telling the world to stay home and stop flying is the clearest possible admission that this energy crisis has no short-term solution while the strait remains closed.