Iran: diplomacy with an aircraft carrier in your face

The third round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran ended yesterday in Geneva without a deal but with what Omani mediator Badr al-Busaidi described as "significant progress." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called it the "most intense and longest" round of talks with Washington. Both sides agreed to continue with technical discussions in Vienna on Monday. Al-Busaidi travels to Washington today to meet Vice President Vance.

American demands are maximal. According to The Wall Street Journal, Washington wants Iran to destroy its three main nuclear facilities, Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and hand over all its enriched uranium. Trump also wants Iran to dismantle its long-range missile programme and cut support for regional armed groups. Iran insists it will only discuss the nuclear question and the lifting of sanctions.

The military context matters as much as the diplomatic one. The United States has deployed one of its largest concentrations of naval and air power in the Middle East in recent years. Trump warned last week that "bad things" would happen if Iran does not agree to a deal. Iran has not enriched uranium since June 2025, when Israel and the United States struck its nuclear facilities in a twelve-day war that left much of its programme in ruins. But Tehran has blocked IAEA inspectors from accessing the bombed sites, and satellite imagery analysed by AP shows activity at two of those locations, suggesting attempts to recover material. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Iran "is not enriching right now, but they're trying to get to the point where they ultimately can."

Before flying to Geneva, Araghchi warned that war "would have no victory for anybody" and that American bases scattered across the region meant "perhaps the whole region would be engaged." It is the kind of statement a country makes when negotiating from considerable weakness. Iran arrives at this table with its nuclear programme damaged, its economy under sanctions, its chief proxy Hezbollah degraded, and domestic unrest growing. The question is less whether there will be a deal than how much Tehran can concede without destabilising the regime from within.