The Samson doctrine

The Revolutionary Guards warned today that if Iran's port and energy infrastructure is attacked, it will set the entire region's oil and gas ablaze. Armed forces spokesman Abolfazl Shekarchi was explicit on state television: "If our ports and docks are threatened, all ports and docks in the region will be our legitimate targets." Parliament speaker Ghalibaf added that any aggression against Iranian islands would "shatter all restraint" and make the Persian Gulf "run with the blood of invaders".

The rhetoric is not new, but the context is. Iran has already struck Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, fuel depots in Bahrain, Dubai's airport, a gas terminal in Qatar and Oman's Duqm port. Bahrain reports intercepting 114 missiles and 190 drones since February 28. Saudi Arabia intercepted 28 drones that breached its airspace yesterday alone. The threat to escalate against Gulf energy infrastructure is not hypothetical. It is already happening.

The logic is what one would expect from a cornered regime: if Iran loses its export capacity, it drags the global market down with it. It is the Samson doctrine applied to the geopolitics of oil. Iran cannot win the war, but it can make losing it extraordinarily costly for everyone. Brent climbed back above $100. Asian markets opened lower: the Nikkei fell 1.59%, the KOSPI 3.06%. Trump said today he could escort vessels through Hormuz "if needed." It is the first time he has spoken of direct naval intervention in the strait. Escalation has its own gravity.