Israel - and possibly the USA - strikes Iran

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced early Saturday morning the launch of a "preemptive strike" against Iran and declared a state of emergency across the country. Iran's Fars news agency reported three explosions in central Tehran minutes after the announcement. Sirens sounded in Tel Aviv. Israel warned its citizens to stay near shelters, anticipating retaliation with ballistic missiles and drones.

This is the second time in nine months that Israel has struck Iranian territory at scale. The first, Operation Rising Lion in June 2025, lasted twelve days and ended with a ceasefire on June 24, after the United States intervened directly by hitting three Iranian nuclear sites. That war killed over 600 people in Iran and 29 in Israel, destroyed much of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, and took out a dozen generals and nuclear scientists. But it didn't solve the underlying problem. Iran began rebuilding almost immediately. Satellite imagery from February shows new structures at Parchin covered in soil to avoid detection, and reinforced tunnels at Isfahan, according to Reuters.

The timing is no coincidence. The third round of US-Iran nuclear talks ended Wednesday in Geneva without a deal, though both sides spoke of "significant progress." Trump had been saying Iran wasn't ready for an agreement and demanded zero enrichment. Iran refused to discuss its missile programme. The New York Times reported on February 22 that Trump was leaning toward a limited strike to pressure concessions, and would consider a broader air campaign if diplomacy or an initial blow failed to work. Politico reported that Trump's senior advisers would prefer Israel to strike first.

The strategic landscape favoured action. Two US carrier strike groups are operating in the region; the Gerald R. Ford entered the eastern Mediterranean on February 26 heading for the Israeli coast. Iran, for its part, is at its weakest point in decades: nuclear programme damaged, ballistic missile programme under reconstruction, massive protests between December 2025 and January 2026 crushed at the cost of thousands of lives, an economy in freefall, the rial at historic lows, and Khamenei so anxious he reportedly named four successors for every post he appoints.

What to watch now is the Iranian response. In June 2025 Iran launched over 500 ballistic missiles at Israel across several days, most of them intercepted. It struck Al Udeid airbase in Qatar. But its long-range capabilities were degraded. What remains are short-range missiles, which threaten US bases in the Gulf more than they threaten Israel. The question is whether this escalates into direct American involvement, as it did on June 22 last year, or stays as an Israeli operation with US logistical support. And the other question, the more uncomfortable one: whether a regime that was already cracking can absorb a second blow of this magnitude without breaking apart.