Ras Laffan ablaze

Hours after the Israeli strike on South Pars, Iran launched missiles at Ras Laffan, Qatar's main liquefied natural gas hub and one of the largest in the world. QatarEnergy's CEO said the Iranian attacks knocked out 17% of the country's LNG export capacity, with estimated losses of $20 billion in annual revenue. Qatar also reported "extensive damage" at the facility. Brent surged to $115 per barrel.

Qatar declared Iran's military and security attachés persona non grata, ordering them to leave the country within 24 hours. Qatar's foreign minister condemned the attack as a "direct threat to national security" and said Qatar reserves "the right to respond through all available legal means." It is the most significant rupture between a Gulf state and Iran since the war began. Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said the Iranian attacks on its neighbours appear to have been "premeditated, preplanned, preorganised and well thought-out", and that Iran timed them to coincide with a diplomatic meeting of Arab foreign ministers.

The Iranian logic is symmetrical: if Israel hits their gas, Iran hits its neighbours' gas. But Ras Laffan is not just any facility. Qatar is the world's largest LNG exporter. Europe depends on Qatari gas since cutting its reliance on Russia. Asia competes for every cargo. Destroying capacity at Ras Laffan has cascading effects that reach Tokyo, Seoul, Berlin and London.