Riyadh's patience

Saudi Arabia declared today that "the little trust that remained in Iran has been completely shattered". Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan warned that "nonpolitical" options are on the table if Iran continues its attacks, and that Riyadh and other Gulf capitals have the military capability to respond forcefully. Two refineries in the Saudi capital were struck by Iranian missiles. Four ballistic missiles launched at Riyadh were intercepted Wednesday, and a drone attack on a gas facility in the kingdom's east was destroyed.

In a joint statement from 12 Arab and Islamic foreign ministers, Saudi Arabia called on Iran to "immediately halt its attacks" and reserved "the right to take military actions." It is the first time Riyadh has explicitly used the word "military" regarding a potential response to Iran in this war. The foreign minister said Gulf patience "is not unlimited."

Context matters. Mohammed bin Salman pressured Trump to attack Iran before the operation began. The Saudis, privately, wanted this war. What they did not want was to become the target. Since February 28, Saudi Arabia has been hit by multiple waves of drones and missiles, its energy infrastructure struck, and the US embassy on its soil was attacked. If Riyadh decides to move from defence to offence, the conflict changes in nature. It stops being a war between the United States, Israel and Iran and becomes something closer to an open regional war.