Is Khamenei dead?

At eleven in the evening Tehran time, cheers and applause were heard from the balconies of several neighbourhoods across the capital. Witnesses told Reuters that people came to their windows to celebrate, that music played, and that convoys of cars honked their horns in Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan and Shiraz, carrying photos of the protesters killed in January. They were celebrating the news that Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989, had been hit by an Israeli strike.

The information should be taken with a grain of salt. Trump declared him dead on Truth Social. Netanyahu said "signs are growing that the tyrant is no longer alive." Four Israeli security officials told the Washington Post he was killed in a strike on his residential compound. According to Channel 12, a photograph of the body was shown to Netanyahu after being recovered from the rubble. A senior US defence official told Fox News that the US government agrees with the Israeli assessment. The Israeli military also reported the deaths of seven senior Iranian officials, including the IRGC commander, Khamenei adviser Ali Shamkhani, and the Defence Minister. On the Iranian side, Foreign Minister Araghchi told NBC that Khamenei is alive "as far as I know." State media speaks of "psychological warfare" and says the Supreme Leader remains "firmly in command." But Araghchi was not in Tehran at the time of the strikes, and the wording of his denial is not exactly categorical.

If Khamenei is indeed dead, the impact is hard to overstate. He is the axis around which the entire Iranian political system has revolved for 36 years: commander-in-chief, supreme religious authority, final arbiter of every decision of state. Just one week ago, the New York Times reported that Khamenei had named four successors for every post he appoints, anticipating a possible decapitation strike. His son Mojtaba was the most widely mentioned candidate to succeed him. But an orderly succession requires functioning institutions, and Iranian institutions are under bombardment. The Revolutionary Guards, which in any regime change scenario would be the decisive actor, just lost their commander. Trump, with his usual subtlety, said many IRGC members are already seeking "immunity" from the United States. The real question is not whether Khamenei is alive or dead. The question is whether the Islamic Republic, as it has existed since 1979, can survive this night.